Vehicle Theft - Facts & Statistics
Thefts by City
According to a National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) study released in May 2006, six of the top 10 U.S. metropolitan areas for vehicle theft in 2005 were in California, as shown below:
| Rank | Metropolitan Statistical Area | Vehicles Stolen | Rate (1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modesto, CA | 7,071 | 1,418.80 |
| 2 | Las Vegas/Paradise, NV | 22,465 | 1,360.90 |
| 3 | Stockton, CA | 7,586 | 1,167.30 |
| 4 | Phoenix/Mesa/Scottsdale, AZ | 41,000 | 1,103.50 |
| 5 | Visalia/Porterville, CA | 4,257 | 1,060.20 |
| 6 | Seattle/Tacoma/Bellevue, WA | 33,494 | 1,057.60 |
| 7 | Sacramento/Arden-Arcade/Roseville, CA | 20,268 | 1,005.00 |
| 8 | San Diego/Carlsbad/San Marcos, CA | 28,845 | 983.9 |
| 9 | Fresno, CA | 8,478 | 978.11 |
| 10 | Yakima, WA | 2,212 | 965.54 |
| (1) Ranked by the rate of vehicle thefts reported per 100,000 people based on the 2000 Census. Source: National Insurance |
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Thefts by Model & Frequency of Thefts
The NICB says that the 1995 Honda Civic was the most stolen vehicle in 2004. Motor vehicle thieves continue to target imports over domestic brands. Many vehicles on the top ten list shown below are 10 to 17 model years old.
These cars have been consistent top sellers for many years and some of their parts are interchangeable. Thieves dismantle them for their components. The NICB compiles its list using National Crime Information Center data. It differs from the CCC Information list below because it is based on police reports while the CCC report uses insurance claims.
For Car Thieves, the West is Best
Nationally, Auto Theft on Pace for Second Straight Year of Decline
Des Plaines, IL - The National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) reported today that for calendar year 2005, the West, and particularly California, is indeed heaven for the nation's auto thieves. All of the nation's top ten areas with the highest vehicle theft rates are in the West with six of them in California.
KEY STATISTICS based on information provided by NICB (National Insurance Crime Bureau)
- Every 26 seconds, a motor vehicle is stolen in the United States
- The odds of a vehicle being stolen were 1 in 190
- The odds are highest in urban areas
- Only 13.0 percent of thefts were cleared by arrests
- The average comprehensive insurance premium in the U.S. rose 11.2 percent from 1999 to 2003, the most recent data available
- Carjacking occurs most frequently in urban areas
- They account for only 3.0 percent of all motor vehicle thefts
- The highest rate was reported on the West Coast, 664.5 per 100,000 people, up 1.7 percent
The NICB Vehicle Theft Study Methodology
The NICB Vehicle Theft Study contains vehicle theft rates and rankings for Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States from 2005.
What data sources were used for the report?
- The NICB mirror image of the FBI NCIC file.
- The extracted population database from http://www.census.gov
- Current zip code list which matches zip codes and cities to Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSA). This data was provided by http://www.zipinfo.com
- Current listing of Originating Agency Identification (ORI) Numbers provided by the National Law
- Enforcement Telecommunication System (NLETS).
What editing was made on the data sources to create the report?
- NCIC File - 2005 vehicle data was extracted using the standard representation of vehicles in the file. The dataset also included located, cleared and cancelled vehicles. Records containing the term "test" in the Vehicle Identification Number (VIN), Miscellaneous, or Originating Case Agency (OCA) number were omitted.
- Population Database - No specific editing was performed on the data. The report creation process used the 2004 Estimated Population Figures provided by the U.S. Census. The 2005 estimated numbers are not available until July, 2006.
- Zip Code File - No editing was performed on the file. The file is used to match Zip Codes and cities to the CBSA's. For each Zip Code which is part of a metropolitan area this file identifies the CBSA code in which the Zip Code occurs.
- ORI File - The nine character Zip Code field for each ORI is reduced to five characters. The ORI Zip Code is then matched to the Zip Code file to identify the CBSA code and county of the ORI. In instances where an exact match could not be found on the ORI file the last two characters (terminal location) were dropped to match the ORI's on file.
What are CBSAs/MSAs?
The United State Office of Management and Budget (OMB) defines metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas according to published standards that are applied to Census Bureau data. The term "core based statistical area" became effective in 2000 and refers collectively to metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The 2000 standards provide that each CBSA must contain at least one urban area of 10,000 or more population. Each MSA must have at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants.
Why are population estimates used?
The U.S. Census Bureau annually produces estimates of total resident population for each state and county. County population estimates are produced with a component of population change method, while the state population estimates are solely the sum of the county populations. The Population Estimates Program publishes total resident population estimates and demographic components of change (births, deaths, and migration) each year. These estimates are used in federal funding allocations, as denominators for vital rates and per capita time series, as survey controls, and in monitoring recent demographic changes.
What process is used to calculate the theft rate and the overall report?
- The Zip Code data is matched to the corresponding MSA.
- This data is then used to create a table of theft records from the time period using the data from the above step to identify thefts within counties.
- The resulting table contains MSA names, number of thefts and population.
- The calculation performed is: ((number of thefts/prior year's estimated population) *100,000).
- The data is then ranked from highest to lowest.